“But if someone tweets and nobody reads it, did it even happen?”
From the article on Gothamist
For various reasons I skipped my regular Entertaining Statistics post this month but there is a topic I planned to discuss for a while with some elements of statistics. Let’s see how entertaining it is.
When I created my Twitter account almost four years ago I couldn’t understand why people would use that service at all: even with just a handful of accounts I followed it seemed just a cacophony of words, ideas and strange labels. #Jabberwocky
I tried to participate in some chats and movements (#perfumetalk, #FF, klout) but it always felt a little strange, as if while standing in the middle of a general admission floor I was trying to talk to people scattered all over the place: some of them were busy talking to others or themselves, some just couldn’t hear me over the music and some had already left quietly.
Today, four years later, I still do not see too much sense in tweeting but I still do it from time to time. I get some random news from there but mostly I use it as an announcement medium – for my new blog posts, other blogs’ giveaways and the like. The main reason I do it is the idea that I want those who actually read my posts to get a notification about them any way they prefer – by e-mail, through Facebook, Twitter, RSS, Bloglovin or Google+.
I don’t remember why but last year I decided to use one of the free services that do statistics for your account – TwitterConter. It’s a simple application: all it does is a report once a week on how many followers you currently have, how many have you gained since the last report and a prediction of the next week’s followers count.
After looking through reports for the last 63 weeks I should say that I’m officially amazed:
- The prediction proved to be correct only 4 (four) times; let’s throw in five more with the discrepancy +/- 1. That gives us 9 correct predictions out of 63 – or 14%.
- Only on 4 occasions the prediction was more aspirational then the reality (6.3%) and I gained less than they thought I would. In 53 cases (84%!!!) the prediction was too pessimistic as to my ability to attract new followers.
At the same time these reports constantly try to entice me to read their great recommendations as to how to improve my pitiful progress in obtaining more followers. Even if it had been my goal, I wouldn’t have trusted the source taking into the account the success rate of their forecasts (and I don’t like their defeatist attitude!).
Do you have a Twitter account? Do you use it? How?
Images: my own